Predicting Future Oceans: Sustainability of Ocean and Human Systems Amidst Global Environmental Change provides a synthesis of our knowledge of the future state of the oceans. The editors undertake the challenge of integrating diverse perspectives—from oceanography to anthropology—to exhibit the changes in ecological conditions and their socioeconomic implications. Each contributing author provides a novel perspective, with the book as a whole collating scholarly understandings of future oceans and coastal communities across the world. The diverse perspectives, syntheses and state-of-the-art natural and social sciences contributions are led by past and current research fellows and principal investigators of the Nereus Program network.
This includes members at 17 leading research institutes, addressing themes such as oceanography, biodiversity, fisheries, mariculture production, economics, pollution, public health and marine policy.
This book is a comprehensive resource for senior undergraduate and postgraduate readers studying social and natural science, as well as practitioners working in the field of natural resources management and marine conservation.
1. Cover image - p. Cover 2. Title page - p. iii 3. Table of Contents - p. iii 4. Copyright - p. iv 5. List of contributors - p. xxi 6. Preface - p. xxv 7. Acknowledgments - p. xxvii 8. Section 1: Predicting future oceans - p. xxviii 9. Chapter 1. Predicting the future ocean: pathways to global ocean sustainability - p. 3 10. Section 2: Changing Ocean Systems - p. 13 11. Chapter 2. Changing ocean systems: A short synthesis - p. 19 12. Chapter 3. Drivers of fisheries production in complex socioecological systems - p. 35 13. Chapter 4. Changing seasonality of the sea: past, present, and future - p. 39 14. Chapter 5. Extreme climatic events in the ocean - p. 53 15. Chapter 6. Seafood methylmercury in a changing ocean - p. 61 16. Chapter 7. Building confidence in projections of future ocean capacity - p. 69 17. Section 3: Changing Marine Ecosystems and Biodiversity - p. 75 18. Chapter 8. Marine biodiversity and ecosystem services: the large gloomy shadow of climate change - p. 79 19. Chapter 9. Current and future biogeography of exploited marine exploited groups under climate change - p. 87 20. Chapter 10. Linking individual performance to population persistence in a changing world - p. 103 21. Chapter 11. The Sea Around Us as provider of global fisheries catch and related marine biodiversity data to the Nereus Program and civil society - p. 111 22. Chapter 12. Changing biomass flows in marine ecosystems: from the past to the future - p. 121 23. Chapter 13. The role of cyclical climate oscillations in species distribution shifts under climate change - p. 129 24. Chapter 14. Jellyfishes in a changing ocean - p. 137 25. Chapter 15. Understanding variability in marine fisheries: importance of environmental forcing - p. 149 26. Chapter 16. Life history of marine fishes and their implications for the future oceans - p. 165 27. Section 4: Changing Fisheries and Seafood Supply - p. 170 28. Chapter 17. Fisheries and seafood security under changing oceans - p. 175 29. Chapter 18. Projecting economics of fishing and fishing effort dynamics in the 21st century under climate change - p. 181 30. Chapter 19. Integrating environmental information into stock assessment models for fisheries management - p. 193 31. Chapter 20. Climate change adaptation and spatial fisheries management - p. 207 32. Chapter 21. Adapting tourist seafood consumption practices in Pacific Islands to climate change - p. 215 33. Chapter 22. Mariculture: perception and prospects under climate change - p. 227 34. Chapter 23. The big picture: future global seafood markets - p. 241 35. Chapter 24. Climate change, contaminants, and country food: collaborating with communities to promote food security in the Arctic - p. 249 36. Section 5: Changing Social World of the Oceans - p. 258 37. Chapter 25. The changing social world of the oceans - p. 267 38. Chapter 26. The impact of environmental change on small-scale fishing communities: moving beyond adaptive capacity to community response - p. 271 39. Chapter 27. The future of mangrove fishing communities - p. 283 40. Chapter 28. Ocean policy on the water—incorporating fishers’ perspectives and values - p. 295 41. Chapter 29. Integration of traditional knowledge in policy for climate adaptation, displacement and migration in the Pacific - p. 305 42. Chapter 30. Coastal indigenous peoples in global ocean governance - p. 317 43. Chapter 31. The relevance of human rights to socially responsible seafood - p. 325 44. Chapter 32. The emergence of corporate social responsibility in the global seafood industry: potentials and limitations - p. 335 45. Section 6: Governance and Well-Being in Changing Oceans - p. 342 46. Chapter 33. The opportunities of changing ocean governance for sustainability - p. 347 47. Chapter 34. Climate change vulnerability and ocean governance - p. 357 48. Chapter 35. The last commons: (re)constructing an ocean future - p. 365 49. Chapter 36. New actors, new possibilities, new challenges—nonstate actor participation in global fisheries governance - p. 377 50. Chapter 37. Exploring the knowns and unknowns of international fishery conflicts - p. 387 51. Chapter 38. A Blue Economy: equitable, sustainable, and viable development in the world’s oceans - p. 395 52. Chapter 39. Can aspirations lead us to the oceans we want? - p. 405 53. Section 7: Ocean Governance Beyond Boundaries - p. 415 54. Chapter 40. Ocean governance beyond boundaries: origins, trends, and current challenges - p. 419 55. Chapter 41. Incorporating the dynamic and connected nature of the open ocean into governance of marine biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction - p. 425 56. Chapter 42. Legitimacy has risks and benefits for effective international marine management - p. 437 57. Chapter 43. Verifying and improving states’ compliance with their international fisheries law obligations - p. 453 58. Chapter 44. Understanding potential impacts of subsidies disciplines and small-scale fisheries - p. 465 59. Chapter 45. The trouble with tunas: international fisheries science and policy in an uncertain future - p. 475 60. Chapter 46. The road to implementing an ecosystem-based approach to high seas fisheries management - p. 483 61. Chapter 47. Ocean pollution and warming oceans: toward ocean solutions and natural marine bioremediation - p. 495 62. Chapter 48. Beyond prediction—radical ocean futures—a science fiction prototyping approach to imagining the future oceans - p. 519 63. Section 8: Conclusion - p. 525 64. Chapter 49. In conclusion: Sustainable and equitable relationships between ocean and society - p. 531 65. Index - p. 539
Predicting Future Oceans: Sustainability of Ocean and Human Systems Amidst Global Environmental Change provides a synthesis of our knowledge of the future state of the oceans. The editors undertake the challenge of integrating diverse perspectives—from oceanography to anthropology—to exhibit the changes in ecological conditions and their socioeconomic implications. Each contributing author provides a novel perspective, with the book as a whole collating scholarly understandings of future oceans and coastal communities across the world. The diverse perspectives, syntheses and state-of-the-art natural and social sciences contributions are led by past and current research fellows and principal investigators of the Nereus Program network.
This includes members at 17 leading research institutes, addressing themes such as oceanography, biodiversity, fisheries, mariculture production, economics, pollution, public health and marine policy.
This book is a comprehensive resource for senior undergraduate and postgraduate readers studying social and natural science, as well as practitioners working in the field of natural resources management and marine conservation.
1. Cover image - p. Cover 2. Title page - p. iii 3. Table of Contents - p. iii 4. Copyright - p. iv 5. List of contributors - p. xxi 6. Preface - p. xxv 7. Acknowledgments - p. xxvii 8. Section 1: Predicting future oceans - p. xxviii 9. Chapter 1. Predicting the future ocean: pathways to global ocean sustainability - p. 3 10. Section 2: Changing Ocean Systems - p. 13 11. Chapter 2. Changing ocean systems: A short synthesis - p. 19 12. Chapter 3. Drivers of fisheries production in complex socioecological systems - p. 35 13. Chapter 4. Changing seasonality of the sea: past, present, and future - p. 39 14. Chapter 5. Extreme climatic events in the ocean - p. 53 15. Chapter 6. Seafood methylmercury in a changing ocean - p. 61 16. Chapter 7. Building confidence in projections of future ocean capacity - p. 69 17. Section 3: Changing Marine Ecosystems and Biodiversity - p. 75 18. Chapter 8. Marine biodiversity and ecosystem services: the large gloomy shadow of climate change - p. 79 19. Chapter 9. Current and future biogeography of exploited marine exploited groups under climate change - p. 87 20. Chapter 10. Linking individual performance to population persistence in a changing world - p. 103 21. Chapter 11. The Sea Around Us as provider of global fisheries catch and related marine biodiversity data to the Nereus Program and civil society - p. 111 22. Chapter 12. Changing biomass flows in marine ecosystems: from the past to the future - p. 121 23. Chapter 13. The role of cyclical climate oscillations in species distribution shifts under climate change - p. 129 24. Chapter 14. Jellyfishes in a changing ocean - p. 137 25. Chapter 15. Understanding variability in marine fisheries: importance of environmental forcing - p. 149 26. Chapter 16. Life history of marine fishes and their implications for the future oceans - p. 165 27. Section 4: Changing Fisheries and Seafood Supply - p. 170 28. Chapter 17. Fisheries and seafood security under changing oceans - p. 175 29. Chapter 18. Projecting economics of fishing and fishing effort dynamics in the 21st century under climate change - p. 181 30. Chapter 19. Integrating environmental information into stock assessment models for fisheries management - p. 193 31. Chapter 20. Climate change adaptation and spatial fisheries management - p. 207 32. Chapter 21. Adapting tourist seafood consumption practices in Pacific Islands to climate change - p. 215 33. Chapter 22. Mariculture: perception and prospects under climate change - p. 227 34. Chapter 23. The big picture: future global seafood markets - p. 241 35. Chapter 24. Climate change, contaminants, and country food: collaborating with communities to promote food security in the Arctic - p. 249 36. Section 5: Changing Social World of the Oceans - p. 258 37. Chapter 25. The changing social world of the oceans - p. 267 38. Chapter 26. The impact of environmental change on small-scale fishing communities: moving beyond adaptive capacity to community response - p. 271 39. Chapter 27. The future of mangrove fishing communities - p. 283 40. Chapter 28. Ocean policy on the water—incorporating fishers’ perspectives and values - p. 295 41. Chapter 29. Integration of traditional knowledge in policy for climate adaptation, displacement and migration in the Pacific - p. 305 42. Chapter 30. Coastal indigenous peoples in global ocean governance - p. 317 43. Chapter 31. The relevance of human rights to socially responsible seafood - p. 325 44. Chapter 32. The emergence of corporate social responsibility in the global seafood industry: potentials and limitations - p. 335 45. Section 6: Governance and Well-Being in Changing Oceans - p. 342 46. Chapter 33. The opportunities of changing ocean governance for sustainability - p. 347 47. Chapter 34. Climate change vulnerability and ocean governance - p. 357 48. Chapter 35. The last commons: (re)constructing an ocean future - p. 365 49. Chapter 36. New actors, new possibilities, new challenges—nonstate actor participation in global fisheries governance - p. 377 50. Chapter 37. Exploring the knowns and unknowns of international fishery conflicts - p. 387 51. Chapter 38. A Blue Economy: equitable, sustainable, and viable development in the world’s oceans - p. 395 52. Chapter 39. Can aspirations lead us to the oceans we want? - p. 405 53. Section 7: Ocean Governance Beyond Boundaries - p. 415 54. Chapter 40. Ocean governance beyond boundaries: origins, trends, and current challenges - p. 419 55. Chapter 41. Incorporating the dynamic and connected nature of the open ocean into governance of marine biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction - p. 425 56. Chapter 42. Legitimacy has risks and benefits for effective international marine management - p. 437 57. Chapter 43. Verifying and improving states’ compliance with their international fisheries law obligations - p. 453 58. Chapter 44. Understanding potential impacts of subsidies disciplines and small-scale fisheries - p. 465 59. Chapter 45. The trouble with tunas: international fisheries science and policy in an uncertain future - p. 475 60. Chapter 46. The road to implementing an ecosystem-based approach to high seas fisheries management - p. 483 61. Chapter 47. Ocean pollution and warming oceans: toward ocean solutions and natural marine bioremediation - p. 495 62. Chapter 48. Beyond prediction—radical ocean futures—a science fiction prototyping approach to imagining the future oceans - p. 519 63. Section 8: Conclusion - p. 525 64. Chapter 49. In conclusion: Sustainable and equitable relationships between ocean and society - p. 531 65. Index - p. 539
