Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters covers all major aspects of catastrophe risk modeling, from hazards through to financial analysis. It explores relevant new science in risk modeling, indirect losses, assessment of impact and consequences to insurance losses, and current changes in risk modeling practice, along with case studies. It also provides further insight into the shortcomings of current models and examines model risk and ideas to diversify risk assessment.
Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters instructs readers on how to assess, price and then hedge the losses from natural and manmade catastrophes. This book reviews current model development and science and explains recent changes in the catastrophe modeling space, including new initiatives covering uncertainty and big data in the assessment of risk for insurance pricing and portfolio management. Edited by a leading expert in both hazards and risk, this book is authored by a global panel including major modeling vendors, modeling consulting firms, and well-known catastrophe modeling scientists. Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters provides important insight into how models are used to price and manage risk.
1. Introduction - p. xi 2. Section I. Catastrophe Models, General Concepts and Methods - p. xxii 3. Chapter 1. Quantifying Model Uncertainty and Risk - p. 3 4. Chapter 2. What Makes a Catastrophe Model Robust - p. 47 5. Chapter 3. Towards a More Dynamical Paradigm for Natural Catastrophe Risk Modeling - p. 63 6. Chapter 4. Empirical Fragility and Vulnerability Assessment: Not Just a Regression - p. 79 7. Section II. Model Creation, Specific Perils and Data - p. 103 8. Chapter 5. The Use of Historic Loss Data for Insurance and Total Loss Modeling - p. 107 9. Chapter 6. Indirect Loss Potential Index for Natural Disasters for National and Subnational Analysis - p. 139 10. Chapter 7. Probability Gain From Seismicity-Based Earthquake Models - p. 175 11. Chapter 8. Big Data Challenges and Hazards Modeling - p. 193 12. Chapter 9. Progress Toward Hyperresolution Models of Global Flood Hazard - p. 211 13. Sectioni III. Model Insurance Use-Cases - p. 232 14. Chapter 10. Insurance Pricing and Portfolio Management Using Catastrophe Models - p. 235 15. Chapter 11. Portfolio Optimization Using Catastrophe Model Results, a Use Case From the Insurance Industry - p. 247 16. Section IV. Model Risk, Resilience and New Concepts - p. 259 17. Chapter 12. Parsimonious Risk Assessment and the Role of Transparent Diverse Models - p. 263 18. Chapter 13. Creating a Probabilistic Catastrophe Model With the Characteristic Event Methodology - p. 271 19. Chapter 14. From Risk Management to Quantitative Disaster Resilience: A New Paradigm for Catastrophe Modeling - p. 281 20. Chapter 15. Beyond “Model Risk”: A Practice Perspective on Modeling in Insurance - p. 299 21. Index - p. 307
Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters covers all major aspects of catastrophe risk modeling, from hazards through to financial analysis. It explores relevant new science in risk modeling, indirect losses, assessment of impact and consequences to insurance losses, and current changes in risk modeling practice, along with case studies. It also provides further insight into the shortcomings of current models and examines model risk and ideas to diversify risk assessment.
Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters instructs readers on how to assess, price and then hedge the losses from natural and manmade catastrophes. This book reviews current model development and science and explains recent changes in the catastrophe modeling space, including new initiatives covering uncertainty and big data in the assessment of risk for insurance pricing and portfolio management. Edited by a leading expert in both hazards and risk, this book is authored by a global panel including major modeling vendors, modeling consulting firms, and well-known catastrophe modeling scientists. Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters provides important insight into how models are used to price and manage risk.
1. Introduction - p. xi 2. Section I. Catastrophe Models, General Concepts and Methods - p. xxii 3. Chapter 1. Quantifying Model Uncertainty and Risk - p. 3 4. Chapter 2. What Makes a Catastrophe Model Robust - p. 47 5. Chapter 3. Towards a More Dynamical Paradigm for Natural Catastrophe Risk Modeling - p. 63 6. Chapter 4. Empirical Fragility and Vulnerability Assessment: Not Just a Regression - p. 79 7. Section II. Model Creation, Specific Perils and Data - p. 103 8. Chapter 5. The Use of Historic Loss Data for Insurance and Total Loss Modeling - p. 107 9. Chapter 6. Indirect Loss Potential Index for Natural Disasters for National and Subnational Analysis - p. 139 10. Chapter 7. Probability Gain From Seismicity-Based Earthquake Models - p. 175 11. Chapter 8. Big Data Challenges and Hazards Modeling - p. 193 12. Chapter 9. Progress Toward Hyperresolution Models of Global Flood Hazard - p. 211 13. Sectioni III. Model Insurance Use-Cases - p. 232 14. Chapter 10. Insurance Pricing and Portfolio Management Using Catastrophe Models - p. 235 15. Chapter 11. Portfolio Optimization Using Catastrophe Model Results, a Use Case From the Insurance Industry - p. 247 16. Section IV. Model Risk, Resilience and New Concepts - p. 259 17. Chapter 12. Parsimonious Risk Assessment and the Role of Transparent Diverse Models - p. 263 18. Chapter 13. Creating a Probabilistic Catastrophe Model With the Characteristic Event Methodology - p. 271 19. Chapter 14. From Risk Management to Quantitative Disaster Resilience: A New Paradigm for Catastrophe Modeling - p. 281 20. Chapter 15. Beyond “Model Risk”: A Practice Perspective on Modeling in Insurance - p. 299 21. Index - p. 307
